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万全之策
[版面:桥牌][首篇作者:arrows] , 2016年12月12日16:44:30 ,404次阅读,25次回复
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arrows
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发信人: arrows (箭笑江湖), 信区: Bridge
标  题: 万全之策
关键字: 坐庄
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Dec 12 16:44:30 2016, 美东)

抄来的一副牌,好像其中的技巧颇有普遍性。

S KQT9
H KJT9
D KQT9
C K


S A432
H A2
D A32
C AQJT

7NT, 首攻草花。有没有百分之百的路线呢?

--
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 02:23:54 2016, 美东)

可以有99.9%。但是离100%还差点。
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arrows
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发信人: arrows (箭笑江湖), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 13:24:05 2016, 美东)

我脑袋想破也没想出来如何兼顾所有的情况。
偷看了一下答案,实际上只要两句话就够了。呵呵。
【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: 可以有99.9%。但是离100%还差点。



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 14:39:05 2016, 美东)

一句话就够了:如果已知对方牌型分布,7NT必成。怎么兼顾是个问题。。。

【 在 arrows (箭笑江湖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我脑袋想破也没想出来如何兼顾所有的情况。
: 偷看了一下答案,实际上只要两句话就够了。呵呵。



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发信人: vikingpirate (pp++2.9), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 14:55:25 2016, 美东)

Difficult...

It seems a good start to cash DK, DA, DQ, so that we don't need to discard
anything from dummy before knowing who guard D.

If E has DJ, cash SK, SQ, and play for a double-squeeze if necessary.
If W has DJ, I didn't find a perfect way....



【 在 arrows (箭笑江湖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 抄来的一副牌,好像其中的技巧颇有普遍性。
: S KQT9
: H KJT9
: D KQT9
: C K
: S A432
: H A2
: D A32
: C AQJT
:  7NT, 首攻草花。有没有百分之百的路线呢?



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发信人: arrows (箭笑江湖), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 16:19:57 2016, 美东)

Seem you are on the right track. :-)
【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: 一句话就够了:如果已知对方牌型分布,7NT必成。怎么兼顾是个问题。。。



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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 18:13:48 2016, 美东)

"If E has DJ, cash SK, SQ, and play for a double-squeeze if necessary."
If E has DJ and W has SJ, how does double-squeeze work? E will pitch after
dummy.
If W has DJ, it is cold now.

【 在 vikingpirate (pp++2.9) 的大作中提到: 】
: Difficult...
: It seems a good start to cash DK, DA, DQ, so that we don't need to discard
: anything from dummy before knowing who guard D.
: If E has DJ, cash SK, SQ, and play for a double-squeeze if necessary.
: If W has DJ, I didn't find a perfect way....





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发信人: vikingpirate (pp++2.9), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 22:23:01 2016, 美东)

You are right, when E has DJ, there is no perfect plan....

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: "If E has DJ, cash SK, SQ, and play for a double-squeeze if necessary."
: If E has DJ and W has SJ, how does double-squeeze work? E will pitch after
: dummy.
: If W has DJ, it is cold now.



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 13 23:26:01 2016, 美东)

Try DKQA first. If LHO has 4D, cash SKQ. If LHO also has long S, it is a
simple squeeze.

If RHO has 4 or 5 D, after we have only 3S in dummy and hand, RHO may have
shown 4-3 or 5-2 in minors, then major holding can be 4-2 or 1-5, and guess
is still needed. No guess needed for all other holding.

Still not 100% ...

【 在 arrows (箭笑江湖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 抄来的一副牌,好像其中的技巧颇有普遍性。
: S KQT9
: H KJT9
: D KQT9
: C K
: S A432
: H A2
: D A32
: C AQJT
:  7NT, 首攻草花。有没有百分之百的路线呢?



--
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 14 02:02:35 2016, 美东)

"Try DKQA first. If LHO has 4D, cash SKQ. If LHO also has long S, it is a
simple squeeze."
If you want to be exotic, you can play SK then SA. If RHO has long S, you
have a double-squeeze.

"If RHO has 4 or 5 D, after we have only 3S in dummy and hand, RHO may have
shown 4-3 or 5-2 in minors, then major holding can be 4-2 or 1-5, and guess
is still needed. No guess needed for all other holding."
You also have a guess if RHO has 4-2 in minors, for example. Can be 4-3 or 1
-6 in majors...

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Try DKQA first. If LHO has 4D, cash SKQ. If LHO also has long S, it is a
: simple squeeze.
: If RHO has 4 or 5 D, after we have only 3S in dummy and hand, RHO may have
: shown 4-3 or 5-2 in minors, then major holding can be 4-2 or 1-5, and
guess
: is still needed. No guess needed for all other holding.
: Still not 100% ...



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 14 10:16:48 2016, 美东)

If RHO has 6 H, LHO will show out.

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: "Try DKQA first. If LHO has 4D, cash SKQ. If LHO also has long S, it is a
: simple squeeze."
: If you want to be exotic, you can play SK then SA. If RHO has long S, you
: have a double-squeeze.
: "If RHO has 4 or 5 D, after we have only 3S in dummy and hand, RHO may
have
: shown 4-3 or 5-2 in minors, then major holding can be 4-2 or 1-5, and
guess
: is still needed. No guess needed for all other holding."
: You also have a guess if RHO has 4-2 in minors, for example. Can be 4-3 or
1
: -6 in majors...
: guess



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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 14 20:31:03 2016, 美东)

Right, LHO shows out on SECOND heart, what are you going to do about it?

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: If RHO has 6 H, LHO will show out.




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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 14 20:57:02 2016, 美东)

Then we know the exact shape. No more guess needed, right?
【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Right, LHO shows out on SECOND heart, what are you going to do about it?



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 15 17:06:23 2016, 美东)

I see, you mean to test hearts first before spades. If LHO can follow second
heart, then RHO has at least 2 spades, you play off KQ. Got it.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Then we know the exact shape. No more guess needed, right?




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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 15 17:26:14 2016, 美东)

I think we can summarize the best line so far.

First, test diamonds. If 3-3 or DJ drop then claim. If DJ is outstanding in
LHO, claim (there are multiple ways to ensure 13 tricks).

If DJ is outstanding in RHO, next you play two more clubs (dummy pitch 1
heart, then D10).
1) If RHO has only 6 minor cards, you next cash 2 hearts, if LHO can follow
then RHO has at least 2 spades, you can pick up spade suit with confidence;
if LHO shows out then you know exact spade distribution too.
2) If RHO has at least 7 cards in minor, you play SK then SA. Only bad
situation is RHO started with 4 spades. In this case you cash last club (
dummy pitch spade), then HA and H finesse. When RHO has at least 4-4 or 5-3
in minors you guarantee the contract, since RHO cannot have more than 1
heart.

The only time you go down is RHO holding exactly 4-2-4-3 or 4-2-5-2 shape
with SJ, HQ, DJ.
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发信人: vikingpirate (pp++2.9), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 15 22:37:26 2016, 美东)

在先动D的情况下,这个应该是最好的解了。

技术上来说,先SK,SA 也可以保留后面的所有机会,不过后面好像也要一猜。

还有别的可能性吗?

楼主公布答案吧,太难了。。。


【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: I think we can summarize the best line so far.
: First, test diamonds. If 3-3 or DJ drop then claim. If DJ is outstanding
in
: LHO, claim (there are multiple ways to ensure 13 tricks).
: If DJ is outstanding in RHO, next you play two more clubs (dummy pitch 1
: heart, then D10).
: 1) If RHO has only 6 minor cards, you next cash 2 hearts, if LHO can
follow
: then RHO has at least 2 spades, you can pick up spade suit with confidence
;
: if LHO shows out then you know exact spade distribution too.
: 2) If RHO has at least 7 cards in minor, you play SK then SA. Only bad
: situation is RHO started with 4 spades. In this case you cash last club (
: ...................



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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 14:09:42 2016, 美东)

真有100%的路线吗?
楼主说没想出来,但标题是万全之策 ...

【 在 vikingpirate (pp++2.9) 的大作中提到: 】
: 在先动D的情况下,这个应该是最好的解了。
: 技术上来说,先SK,SA 也可以保留后面的所有机会,不过后面好像也要一猜。
: 还有别的可能性吗?
: 楼主公布答案吧,太难了。。。
: in
: follow
: ;



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 15:14:33 2016, 美东)

大吼一声,100% 的路线找到了!

The difficulty for us is, when RHO has 7 minors (4-3 or 5-2), we may need to
guess his major holding, which can be either 1-5 or 4-2.

But if we end up with this 4-card ending,

KT9
-
T
-

A43
A
-
-

RHO must have DJ, plus 3 major cards. And he already discards a H. Now we
play HA, and we can tell he has 2 or more hearts originally! The trick is to
delay the DT discard from dummy, and force RHO to discard a H first.

The interesting thing is that this works the same way if LHO has long
diamonds. No any squeeze is needed!



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 15:23:29 2016, 美东)

版主是否考虑发个大包子作为奖励呢? 

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大吼一声,100% 的路线找到了!
: The difficulty for us is, when RHO has 7 minors (4-3 or 5-2), we may need
to
:  guess his major holding, which can be either 1-5 or 4-2.
: But if we end up with this 4-card ending,
: KT9
: -
: T
: -
: A43
: K
: ...................



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: 万全之策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 16:35:49 2016, 美东)

想法是好的,但要特别注意进手。比方说你先打三轮方块就已经不行了,你需要HA回手
,兑现梅花的时候明手要先期垫牌。

正确顺序为:第一墩CK赢得后,先兑现HK!!然后DK,DQ,再DA。之后打梅花AQJ,明
手垫去三张红心(JT9)成如下局面:
KQT9

T


A432
A



你已知道哪家还拿着DJ。此时兑现HA,明手垫去D10。如果有DJ的那家跟出红心,则最
多三张黑桃。如果不能跟出红心,你也可以算出具体黑桃分布。根据这个信息可以把黑
桃100%打对。

其实还真就是13以内加减法,但是难倒了这里大多数高手。关键是要保留D10到最后,
这样持DJ的一家不能过早垫掉方块,于是你最后可以精确计算出牌型。是否就是所谓的
1-suit squeeze呢?

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大吼一声,100% 的路线找到了!
: The difficulty for us is, when RHO has 7 minors (4-3 or 5-2), we may need
to
:  guess his major holding, which can be either 1-5 or 4-2.
: But if we end up with this 4-card ending,



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