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a vugraph 5C
[版面:桥牌][首篇作者:imlate] , 2016年07月24日21:17:23 ,175次阅读,9次回复
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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 24 21:17:23 2016, 美东)

IMP, both white. High level players.

QJ9
AK87
Q82
T97

--
952
AT96
AQJ632


S   W   N  E
1C  1S  X  4S
4NT P   5C AP

Opps give enough headache during auction, but you and partner reach nice 5C.

West leads SK, east follows 3, and you ruff. H to K, while east drops HQ. CT
wins, C7 to J, then CA clears trumps. West discards S2 and S5. What is next?

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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 26 13:04:58 2016, 美东)

Low diamond to 8?
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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 26 13:26:38 2016, 美东)

So you think there is no other chance, but rely on the diamond guess?

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Low diamond to 8?





--
※ 修改:·imlate 於 Jul 26 13:33:47 2016 修改本文·[FROM: 140.]
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 26 13:40:15 2016, 美东)

There are other chances, but playing for those chances will cost you an
entry in dummy, and in the end you still need diamond card placed in your
favor.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: So you think there is no other chance, but rely on the diamond guess?



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 27 10:18:27 2016, 美东)

I think I was asking if it is possible to combine other chance with diamond
guess, or delay diamond guess so you have better idea.

If you play diamond to 8 or Q, the outcome is already determined. Even if
LHO started with diamond Jx or Kx (and played low), you will still choose to
finesse later since that is the percentage play.

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: There are other chances, but playing for those chances will cost you an
: entry in dummy, and in the end you still need diamond card placed in your
: favor.



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 27 17:32:54 2016, 美东)

Playing diamond to Q is inferior. Compared with playing to 8, you lose the
case where RHO has KJxx.

Diamond to 8 will win any time LHO has DJ, or RHO has both K and J.

You can play HK first and maybe set up 4th heart. But in order to cash it,
you still need to guess diamonds (and you won't be able to guess right if
RHO has both K and J). Against strong opponents, you won't have a real clue
on who has what, so in that sense, the outcome is also already determined,
even if double-dummy you could have made the right guess by changing your
mind.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: I think I was asking if it is possible to combine other chance with
: diamond guess, or delay diamond guess so you have better idea.
: If you play diamond to 8 or Q, the outcome is already determined. Even
: if LHO started with diamond Jx or Kx (and played low), you will still
: choose to finesse later since that is the percentage play.



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 27 18:27:38 2016, 美东)

I had thought Q or 8 is a pure guess. It is nice to point out that the D8
is better to take care of KJxx in RHO.

What is in my mind is to play a heart, LHO plays HT, dummy ducks and RHO
discards a spade. Now we have 10 tricks. The only return for LHO is a heart.

Do you think this improves or hurts the chance?

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Playing diamond to Q is inferior. Compared with playing to 8, you lose the
: case where RHO has KJxx.
: Diamond to 8 will win any time LHO has DJ, or RHO has both K and J.
: You can play HK first and maybe set up 4th heart. But in order to cash it,
: you still need to guess diamonds (and you won't be able to guess right if
: RHO has both K and J). Against strong opponents, you won't have a real
clue
: on who has what, so in that sense, the outcome is also already determined,
: even if double-dummy you could have made the right guess by changing your
: mind.








--
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 27 21:04:58 2016, 美东)

I assume you have unblocked H9. Now the contract is cold if you can see the
hands. Playing DA then low D will guarantee the contract when LHO has either
Kx, Jx, KJ in diamonds; if RHO starts with KJxx you will have to play a
diamond from dummy then low in your hand. Technically the two lines have
very similar chances.

You should probably ask about opp's agreement on Michaels. If they play "
split-range" then highly likely LHO has one diamond honor, so just play DA
then low D.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: I had thought Q or 8 is a pure guess. It is nice to point out that the
: D8 is better to take care of KJxx in RHO.
: What is in my mind is to play a heart, LHO plays HT, dummy ducks and
: RHO discards a spade. Now we have 10 tricks. The only return for LHO
: is a heart.
: Do you think this improves or hurts the chance?



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 28 09:03:42 2016, 美东)

Once we know LHO has 2 diamonds, we can play DA and small, avoiding the
guess I really hate. It will fail if both DKJ are at RHO.

LHO actually has DJx. So your careful play to D8 will succeed, and will
score easy 12 tricks by squeezing LHO in majors.

The declarer at the table unfortunately played D to Q, and later finesse DJ
for down 1.

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: I assume you have unblocked H9. Now the contract is cold if you can see
the
: hands. Playing DA then low D will guarantee the contract when LHO has
either
:  Kx, Jx, KJ in diamonds; if RHO starts with KJxx you will have to play a
: diamond from dummy then low in your hand. Technically the two lines have
: very similar chances.
: You should probably ask about opp's agreement on Michaels. If they play "
: split-range" then highly likely LHO has one diamond honor, so just play DA
: then low D.



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: a vugraph 5C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 28 16:01:31 2016, 美东)

All these lines are pretty close. D to Q is also reasonable, any time LHO
has DK it guarantees the contract, it also makes in most cases where RHO has
both DK and DJ. Technically it is slightly inferior than playing to D8, but
almost negligible. In the end it is just about guessing which diamond card
does LHO hold.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Once we know LHO has 2 diamonds, we can play DA and small, avoiding the
: guess I really hate. It will fail if both DKJ are at RHO.
: LHO actually has DJx. So your careful play to D8 will succeed, and will
: score easy 12 tricks by squeezing LHO in majors.
: The declarer at the table unfortunately played D to Q, and later finesse
: DJ for down 1.



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