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try to beat this 3NT
[版面:桥牌][首篇作者:imlate] , 2015年09月30日14:46:19 ,294次阅读,14次回复
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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 14:46:19 2015, 美东)

IMP. You sit as east to defend 3NT.
South  North
1NT    2C
2S     3NT

Your pard leads C2 (4th best), and your CK wins the first trick. How do you
plan to beat this 3NT?

K82
AJT2
K87
876
            AQJ3
            983
            T942
            K4
           
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 15:14:20 2015, 美东)

Not totally clear, but I think switching to S3 offers best chance.
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josephine
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发信人: josephine (jo), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 16:09:09 2015, 美东)

I think it depends on who has CA?
If pd has it,  return S3;
otherwise defend passively.
So, what's their NT range?


【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: IMP. You sit as east to defend 3NT.
: South  North
: 1NT    2C
: 2S     3NT
: Your pard leads C2 (4th best), and your CK wins the first trick. How do
you
: plan to beat this 3NT?
: K82
: AJT2
: K87
: 876
: ...................

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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 16:55:40 2015, 美东)

1NT: 15-17
Also declarer follows low on first club, if it matters.

【 在 josephine (jo) 的大作中提到: 】
: I think it depends on who has CA?
: If pd has it,  return S3;
: otherwise defend passively.
: So, what's their NT range?
: you



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 17:23:34 2015, 美东)

On second thought, maybe returning diamond at trick 2 is better. Partner has
at most an ace. Even if partner has CA, S3 return will only be required if
declarer has exactly QJTx in clubs. With any other holding, diamond return
doesn't cost, and it gains a tempo in setting up a diamond trick. So this is
a much higher percentage defense than S3.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1NT: 15-17
: Also declarer follows low on first club, if it matters.



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 17:28:39 2015, 美东)

Which orientation did partner put down for the opening lead card? :-))

【 在 josephine (jo) 的大作中提到: 】
: I think it depends on who has CA?
: If pd has it,  return S3;
: otherwise defend passively.
: So, what's their NT range?



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josephine
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发信人: josephine (jo), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 20:18:18 2015, 美东)

:D

if pd has CA,  declarer has 4C with QJ so the chances of him having exactly
QJTx are pretty high.
also, since declarer did not eat your K with 4C, maybe the chances of him
having CA are not that high, by restricted choice.


【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Which orientation did partner put down for the opening lead card? :-))

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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 22:31:26 2015, 美东)

Don't think restricted choice theory works here :)
If pard has no CA, his clubs are not better than QJ92 or JT92, otherwise his
lead would be a top card. With worse club holdings without CA (like QTx2),
declarer is unlikely to duck your CK. So CA should be with pard.

【 在 josephine (jo) 的大作中提到: 】
: :D
: if pd has CA,  declarer has 4C with QJ so the chances of him having
exactly
: QJTx are pretty high.
: also, since declarer did not eat your K with 4C, maybe the chances of him
: having CA are not that high, by restricted choice.



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josephine
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发信人: josephine (jo), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct  1 01:13:34 2015, 美东)

Seems our reasonings are the same?
If declarer had CA, he was unlikely to duck;
and yet CA did not appear at first trick, so he was unlikely to have CA (not
sure if this qualifies as a kind of restricted choice:)

Therefore pd is likely to have CA, and declarer not unlikely to have QJTx.
Thus success rate of S3 is not low.

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Don't think restricted choice theory works here :)
: If pard has no CA, his clubs are not better than QJ92 or JT92, otherwise
his
:  lead would be a top card. With worse club holdings without CA (like QTx2)
,
: declarer is unlikely to duck your CK. So CA should be with pard.
: exactly



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct  1 12:05:50 2015, 美东)

Declarer won't duck CA with AJTx or AT9x or AJ9x. Relevant holdings are AJxx
or ATxx, so the question is what will partner lead from QJ9x or QT9x? With
QJ9x, partner should lead CQ. With QT9x it is unclear. If you are certain
partner has CA, then S3 is a sure way to defeat the contract.

Basically, S3 is wrong whenever declarer has CA, D2 is wrong whenever
declarer has QJTx in clubs.


--
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pqwer
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发信人: pqwer (例如), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 05:58:28 2015, 美东)

S3, gotta play partner for CA.
【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: IMP. You sit as east to defend 3NT.
: South  North
: 1NT    2C
: 2S     3NT
: Your pard leads C2 (4th best), and your CK wins the first trick. How do
you
: plan to beat this 3NT?
: K82
: AJT2
: K87
: 876
: ...................



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 13:08:59 2015, 美东)

Yes, S3 is the play. bucky said it at second floor, although he was not
confident :)

Once we place CA with pard, declarer should have all other high cards. So he
won't have 4D, since that will give him a singleton heart. This is unlikely
for him to open 1NT, and there is no room for him to hold HKQ :)

So you are sure you won't give his 9th trick in spades.

I think for the most players, looking at dummy, the spade is the first suit
to exclude. But you guys are so good :)

The NORMAL play will be a high H or D, telling pard clubs are hopeless, and
I am also not interested in the suit I am switching. Then hope pard can
produce ST when he is in with CA. Unfortunately S9 would be his play in that
case.

【 在 pqwer (例如) 的大作中提到: 】
: S3, gotta play partner for CA.
: you




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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 13:15:18 2015, 美东)

Declarer has

Txxx
KQ
AQJ
QJTx

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes, S3 is the play. bucky said it at second floor, although he was not
: confident :)
: Once we place CA with pard, declarer should have all other high cards. So
he
:  won't have 4D, since that will give him a singleton heart. This is
unlikely
:  for him to open 1NT, and there is room for him to hold HKQ :)
: So you are sure you won't give his 9th trick in spades.
: I think for the most players, looking at dummy, the spade is the first
suit
: to exclude. But you guys are so good :)
: The NORMAL play will be a high H or D, telling pard clubs are hopeless,
and
: I am also not interested in the suit I am switching. Then hope pard can
: ...................




--
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 13:53:42 2015, 美东)

Two DK's in a single deck?

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: Declarer has
: Txxx
: KQ
: AKJ
: QJTx



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: try to beat this 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 14:13:03 2015, 美东)

Corrected :)
【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Two DK's in a single deck?



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