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chances for the 3NT
[版面:桥牌][首篇作者:imlate] , 2015年09月29日17:03:39 ,324次阅读,13次回复
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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 29 17:03:39 2015, 美东)

IMP. Non vol.
You open 1NT at the third seat, and pard raises to 3NT.

A82
JT9
KT9
QT96

KT93
K7
AJ3
A754

The lead is H3, and RHO follows H2. Opps low lead (H3) means good suit. What
chance will you play?



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 29 20:34:27 2015, 美东)

Run CQ?
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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 09:27:32 2015, 美东)

That was what I thought. Great minks think alike? No. The declarer played
much better than you and me :)

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Run CQ?



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powerduck66
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发信人: powerduck66 (powerduck), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 12:21:24 2015, 美东)

why h2? shouldn't RHO give a count signal (if leading long 4th)? That might
help LHO to figure out the h distribution (cashing hA to drop the declarer's
bare K)
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 30 13:47:41 2015, 美东)

Maybe H2 IS count... hearts may break 5-3. Note that lead is not necessarily
4th best, it is attitude lead.

【 在 powerduck66 (powerduck) 的大作中提到: 】
: why h2? shouldn't RHO give a count signal (if leading long 4th)? That
: might help LHO to figure out the h distribution (cashing hA to drop the
: declarer's bare K)



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powerduck66
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发信人: powerduck66 (powerduck), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct  1 15:13:35 2015, 美东)

I see - it's attitude lead. In this case, h2 should be count, right? since
the count information helps partner more (declarer won't be able to tell if
LHO is 5/4/3-cards). If h2 is count(std), that means LHO is hAQxx3. I can't
see how declarer is going to make it. Whenever LHO/RHO gets in, LHO can cash
hA to drop the declarer's bare K (based on count) - 5 tricks already.

If h2 is not count, then h is probably 4-4 (LHO not likely to lead from AQ3)
.I'll try to avoid RHO getting in. Run s8 (to play split QJ) and hope LHO
will open a new suit when his s wins. I have 7 tricks (3s+1h+2d+1c) and hope
to get 1 more from d (if opp opening) or 1 from c (if opp opening). If I
can get 8, then maybe 9 later...
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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct  1 16:35:29 2015, 美东)

If you are willing to play H 4-4, then wouldn't clubs offer best chance for
3 tricks? Playing CQ has two more advantages even if hearts are 5-3: maybe
LHO won't know to cash HA if getting in (bad defense), or LHO has a stiff CJ
so I can take 3 club tricks without yielding the lead.

I suppose that if I am sure hearts are 5-3 and defense is competent, then I
really should try one top spade first, maybe someone is holding SQJ tight.
If that doesn't work, I try CQ next...

【 在 powerduck66 (powerduck) 的大作中提到: 】
: I see - it's attitude lead. In this case, h2 should be count, right?
: since the count information helps partner more (declarer won't be
: able to tell if LHO is 5/4/3-cards). If h2 is count(std), that means
: LHO is hAQxx3. I can't see how declarer is going to make it. Whenever
: LHO/RHO gets in, LHO can cash hA to drop the declarer's bare K (based
: on count) - 5 tricks already.
: If h2 is not count, then h is probably 4-4 (LHO not likely to lead
: from AQ3).I'll try to avoid RHO getting in. Run s8 (to play split QJ)
: and hope LHO will open a new suit when his s wins. I have 7 tricks
: (3s+1h+2d+1c) and hope to get 1 more from d (if opp opening) or 1 from
: c (if opp opening). If I can get 8, then maybe 9 later...



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pqwer
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发信人: pqwer (例如), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 05:57:16 2015, 美东)

cash CA, If Stiff K dropped from east, you are home.
If west holds stiff CK, you can take D finesse against east. Cash all D and
exit H, hope to end play west with a holding like SJxxx (Qxxx) HAQxxx Dxxx
CK

If nothing happens, S to SA and try to drop SQ or SJ from west. If nothing
happens, you probably want to try D to DJ, then play C to C9 and hope H Q
blocked or H is 4-4. 
【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: IMP. Non vol.
: You open 1NT at the third seat, and pard raises to 3NT.
: A82
: JT9
: KT9
: QT96
: KT93
: K7
: AJ3
: A754
: ...................



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 12:56:22 2015, 美东)

This covers some real chances.

Maybe the way I asked tricked you guys. The declarer immediately played
second heart. If LHO cashes all his hearts, declarer will have a hard time
to discard. But if you do this way, do you think LHO will cash his hearts?
He is more likely to do something else, which is likely to help you.

【 在 pqwer (例如) 的大作中提到: 】
: cash CA, If Stiff K dropped from east, you are home.
: If west holds stiff CK, you can take D finesse against east. Cash all D
and
: exit H, hope to end play west with a holding like SJxxx (Qxxx) HAQxxx Dxxx
: CK

: If nothing happens, S to SA and try to drop SQ or SJ from west. If nothing
: happens, you probably want to try D to DJ, then play C to C9 and hope H Q
: blocked or H is 4-4. 



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 13:58:28 2015, 美东)

Why would LHO not cash the hearts? Worried about squeezing his partner?

【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: This covers some real chances.
: Maybe the way I asked tricked you guys. The declarer immediately played
: second heart. If LHO cashes all his hearts, declarer will have a hard
: time to discard. But if you do this way, do you think LHO will cash his
: hearts? He is more likely to do something else, which is likely to help
: you.



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 14:13:53 2015, 美东)

If he trusts you, that should be what he worries about.

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Why would LHO not cash the hearts? Worried about squeezing his partner?



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bucky
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发信人: bucky (bucky), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 15:59:35 2015, 美东)

Why should he trust an opponent? :-)
【 在 imlate (toolate) 的大作中提到: 】
: If he trusts you, that should be what he worries about.



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imlate
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发信人: imlate (toolate), 信区: Bridge
标  题: Re: chances for the 3NT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct  2 23:34:25 2015, 美东)

You are right. We can't trust opponents too much. Let's say this way: if
they give you some credit ...

【 在 bucky (bucky) 的大作中提到: 】
: Why should he trust an opponent? :-)



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